COVID-19 update for June 29, 2020: A local and global perspective

The nationwide surge in COVID infections is now reaching us locally, with Snohomish County showing an uptick in cases, albeit not as severe as many areas of the United States.

As additional global perspective, the following snapshot comparing the top hotspots throughout the world from Johns Hopkins University shows the United States trending sharply upward in June after steadily declining through April and May, and emerging this week as the world leader in numbers of new confirmed new cases, now surpassing Brazil. Check the Johns Hopkins COVID New Cases page for additional charts and information on worldwide trends.

Closer to home, the following two tables taken from the Washington State Department of Health COVID Dashboard give a comparison of the numbers for Snohomish County and Washington State as a whole, showing that our area is now surpassing the state average in both positive tests and COVID-related death rate.

Additional detail on Snohomish County’s current situation is provided on the Washington State COVID Risk Assessment Dashboard. The following table examines how the above numbers break down among age groups, further illustrating the disproportionate severity of COVID cases among older people.

The numbers in the next table further bear out Snohomish County’s slippage from earlier this month, when the county qualified for and was granted approval to move to Phase 2 reopening under Gov. Inslee’s Safe Start plan. We are now no longer meeting Phase 2 thresholds for three of the five critical criteria. Late last week, this turnabout prompted county officials to delay efforts to apply for Phase 3 approval.

This week’s cumulative count curves also reflect the resurgence of the virus.  The curves for both Snohomish County and Washington State are now showing a pronounced upward tilt, a departure from last month’s decline.

This pattern is also reflected in the new cases per day charts. The most recent data, however, offer a slender ray of encouragement, with the latest preliminary numbers seeming to show new cases backing off. Note that all numbers represented by grey bars are not final and are subject to change as the data are verified.

 

Source data for this report come from Washington State Department of Health COVID Dashboard, the Washington State COVID Risk Assessment Dashboard, and the Johns Hopkins COVID New Cases page. Additional charts and information are available from these sources, as well as the Snohomish Health District COVID-19 Case Count page.

— By Larry Vogel

 

7 Replies to “COVID-19 update for June 29, 2020: A local and global perspective”

  1. Thank you, Larry, for all your efforts to bring this well-presented data to us regularly over these many months!
    Cumulatively, the demographic breakdown of course points to the susceptibility of older community members to COVID-19; however, this appears to be shifting with a greater share of more recent cases among younger people. I’ve looked for analyses on this trend (short of building my own spreadsheets), but if there is information on this trend over time, it could be helpful in messaging to the community that this is not something only older adults must contend with.

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    1. It’s also important to note, the infected death rate is trending down, look at the epidemiologic curve for deaths.

      There are many factors that could play into this good news:
      – the virus has mutated and it’s not as deadly
      – healthcare workers are now able to quickly stabilize patients
      – young, healthy people are less susceptible to dying

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  2. Appreciate your reporting about the Corona Virus changes. This information is meaningful and helpful. It consistently and reliably informs readers in the local area and all subscribers. The information encourages residence to follow the guidelines recommended and developed to help flatten the curve. Also, seeing the charts helps residents to understand and accept why we all should wear masks, limit/avoid enclosed area gatherings, wash hands when returning home, and practice physical distance from others. If we work together on this, we can reduce infections. Hope to see your continued reports in future data in issues of My Edmonds News! I check My Edmonds News daily.

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  3. I agree with Rick’s comments; great reporting to give us this information daily. It would be even more helpful, however, to see data on infection RATES~ how many infections per 10,000 people, for example. That would allow comparisons among counties large and small. Same with national data, allow true comparisons among the states.

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    1. The Seattle Times publishes a chart with the county-level data you seek—infections per 10,000 people. The same info must be on the state’s site somewhere.

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  4. This data is incomplete. If you look at the epidemiologic curve for deaths, deaths are trending down. This is good news, why is the media utterly incapable of being completely transparent?

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  5. Main stream media before it was bought by corporate interests was there to inform, now it is there to create revenue and negative gets attention so its presented more. It has also become highly politicized over the last 20 years resulting in it being filtered.

    For instance when we hear about something like the increase of numbers in the state we are only supposed to see that in general and not focus on the large increase in the migrant labor community in places like Yakima because that could lead to a negative racial perspective. Yet at the same time we see articles saying that Covid is disproportionately effecting everyone not white to prove we need to spend more dollars in areas that correct thinking people wanted to spend money already.

    We have to ignore the coincidence of the timing of increased cases with the timeframe of the protests because we support the protests. Statements of “we have not seen a large number of people testing positive saying they were at protests” at the same time counting on most forgetting things like King 5 having a couple of reports weeks ago about how the national guard contact tracers were being told to not ask people if they had attended a protest.

    I have been saying all along that positives themselves are not that much of a worry, it is increases in hospitalizations and deaths that need our attention. There have been some increases in hospitalizations but at about 5% of total beds its not anywhere close to a critical point. In fact even at its peak this year Covid only accounted for 12.8% of our hospital capacity. Hearing those kind of numbers would scare us less and make us less likely to pay daily attention to the news so we instead hear constant talk about the increase in positives and just how bad it “might” get.

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