COVID-19 update for July 10: End-of-week data, local numbers

The end-of-week data from the Snohomish Health District and other sources show a continued resurgence of COVID-19 in our area accompanied by mostly level number of deaths and hospitalizations.

The latest numbers from the Washington Department of Health comparing Snohomish County with Washington state show that our county is registering higher than the state in percentages of both positive test results and deaths of confirmed COVID cases.

These numbers put us above the thresholds set by Gov. Inslee’s Safe Start levels in several categories, as the following table shows.

As the following graph further illustrates, we continue to fall further behind in the critical measure of the number of new cases per 100,000 over the previous two weeks. We have gone from meeting the target of 25 in early June to 57.4 as of July 8.

The Snohomish County cumulative and daily case counts as reported by the Snohomish Health District also continue their upward trend, although local numbers have yet to catch up with the highs of late March and early April.

This is in marked contrast to the overall state numbers, which according to the latest report from Johns Hopkins shows Washington state setting new highs, most recently reporting 633 new cases in a single day, exceeding by more than 100 the highest count during the surge of early April.

Despite the marked upsurge in new cases, death numbers are remaining relatively constant in both the county and the state, as the following two charts from the Snohomish Health District and Johns Hopkins illustrate.

 

Likewise, hospitalization counts continue to maintain a relatively constant level.

 

Demographic data also continue to illustrate the increased susceptibility of older age groups to the worst effects of the virus, and the upward trend in infections among younger people, suggesting that younger patients have better resistance, resulting in fewer deaths and hospitalizations.

Testing in Snohomish County continues, with numbers of positive results backing off from the previous week.

The uptick in local positive test results is also illustrated in the following weekly and cumulative testing bar charts.

In addition to testing, enhanced contact tracing efforts are having an effect, with more cases being traced to their source and fewer relegated to the catch-all category of community contact. The following table shows close contact to be predominant mode of exposure in our community. Examples of this include attending parties or other gatherings that bring people together in groups and/or direct contact with a person testing positive. This strongly suggests that the virus is primarily being transmitted from person to person and underscores the value of the experts’ advice to wear masks, maintain social distance, and avoid places where people gather.

The local numbers as extracted from the July 10 Snohomish Health District report:

City Total Cases thru 7/4 (confirmed + probable) New cases 6/21-7/4 Total  Recovered thru 7/4 Total COVID Deaths through 6/27
SnoCo total 4202 457 3370 167
Edmonds 408 27 339 28
Lynnwood 730 48 641 23
Mountlake Terrace 134 13 114 2

The data, tables and charts in this report are taken from the following:

Interested readers will find a wealth of additional information from these sources.

— By Larry Vogel

8 Replies to “COVID-19 update for July 10: End-of-week data, local numbers”

  1. How does Snohomish county count a Covid Hospitalization? I ask because my cousin (in Tacoma) blew out her knee mountain biking, while in the hospital she tested positive for Covid and according to her was told she counted, though of course it was not the cause of the hospitalization. Her being in the hospital for just 4 days could skew the recovery numbers assuming there are a significant number of cases like hers.

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    1. This is a valid point, and I can see both sides. From her perspective, in absence of the blown out knee she may have been one of those who are asymptomatic or have such mild symptoms that she never would have been hospitalized. However, from the hospital’s point of view (and likely from the public health perspective), as soon as she was diagnosed as SARS-COV-2 positive, she had to be treated as if she were a COVID patient, requiring the same amount of PPE for exposed personnel, the same degree of isolation, The same precautions for any aerosol generating procedures, etc. as someone who has COVID symptoms. I can see why they would need to “count” her, since one of the issues is the number of hospital beds available for COVID patients.

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      1. Anne, I agree she should count but like with the died “of Covid” and “with Covid” debate there probably needs to be a hospitalized by Covid and with Covid split in the numbers. By the way for anyone that wonders she has been negative for weeks and says she never had so much as a sore throat.

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  2. Exactly Anthony..
    what is the difference or definition of close contact and community acquired? (In the above example)

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    1. I can’t speak for the author, but the phrase “catch all” relating to community acquired would lead me to think that it was acquired somehow in the community but exactly how is unknown. “Direct contact” is a subset of the “close contact” category, so my guess would be that that it would include contact with someone in your household or workplace that that was SARS-COv-2 positive. So my guess is with the former the source of infection is unknown whereas with the latter, the source is known.

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  3. Is there anywhere to find the exact count of hospitalizations of people in the 0-19 age group? It is listed at 1% but adding up the chart shows 101% so the number is somewhere between 1-47 cases, would be nice to know a more exact number. Especially with the debate on how/if we should open schools.

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    1. Alan, given the #s you found previously, we can be sure it’s more than 1. Rounding errors frequently lead to lists of percentages being 99 or 101%, instead of 100%. That 1% could be anything from 0.6 to 1.5% under common rounding rules, so with 4662 total hospitalizations, that means the range is 28-70 (again, rounding).
      It’s possible that someone at the state decided that even 1 case gets listed, percentage wise, as 1%, but that would lead to all kinds of errors in the tally.

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  4. Not sure we can just assume they didn’t do that though.

    A state report found out in late May that they had over counted deaths by around 15%, state total was around 1100 at the time, and then in June dropped 7 cases, what happened to the other 136? Going day to day through the cumulative death count does not show a sudden corrective decline anywhere. Possibly they removed them from the individual days, which would only be seen if compared to an old version of the dashboard. Possibly they are still there, I don’t remember hearing in the news that our state total all of a sudden took that big a drop. An internet search only finds the 7 cases.

    Kid hospitalizations are likely at least at your low range of 28, but I know at least one is technically wrong (my cousins case mentioned above) there probably are a few more like her in the state number. How many kids have been hospitalized because of Covid is out there somewhere and with the school discussion going on it seems like it should be a part of the information they are giving out when writing articles. I’m pretty sure if the number was high we would be seeing it all over the place, but as far as I can find nobody has reported on it.

    Child hospitalizations are likely at least at your low range of 28, but I know at least one is technically wrong (my cousins case mentioned above) there probably are a few more like her in the number. The number of how many kids have been hospitalized because of Covid is out there somewhere and with the school discussion going on it seems like it should be a big part of the information they are giving out when writing articles. I’m pretty sure if the number was high we would be seeing it all over the place, but as far as I can find nobody has reported on it.

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