The worldwide spread of COVID-19 passed a sobering milestone this week, surpassing 20 million confirmed cases, while adding more than 40,000 deaths since this time last week. The United States continues to lead the world in sheer number of cases, with just short of 5.5 million.
Closer to home, the Aug. 15 totals put Washington state and Snohomish County at 67,461 and 5,730 respectively, up from 63,072 and 5,465 a week ago.
The world and national situation:
The global overview map and chart from Johns Hopkins continues to show the U.S. as the world hotspot in overall numbers of cases, ahead of Brazil and India.
While the U.S. leads the world in overall case numbers, it ranks eighth in per capita cases (cases per one million population), up from ninth last week. Note all countries with a higher-per-capita count have much lower total populations, with none exceeding 20 million compared to more than 330 million in the U.S. (see the complete interactive table here).
Taken by region, the Americas continue to account for the majority of cases worldwide, picking up more than a million new cases last week, with Europe running a distant second, having added only 200,000 according to this chart from the World Health Organization.
In worldwide COVID deaths per 100,000 population, the U.S. ranks fourth, trailing Peru, Italy and Chile.
The Washington state situation:
The most recent (Aug. 15) state overview from the Washington Department of Health (DOH) shows confirmed cases at 67,461 with 1,781 deaths, up from 63,072 and 1,688 respectively at this time last week.
The following chart from Johns Hopkins University has some good news: Washington state is now in the fourth consecutive week of declining numbers of new cases. Note that these are associated with a return to higher-level restrictions (tan vertical lines), suggesting that increased attention to masking and social distancing is having a positive effect.
This drop in new cases is also reflected in a decreased case rate (cases per 100K population, two-week rolling average), with the Aug. 13 number showing a drop of almost 14 from the previous week’s report of 134.4. While this is encouraging news, it remains far above the Department of Health’s goal of 25.
COVID-related hospitalizations and deaths in Washington state are showing signs of trending in different directions, with hospitalizations showing a slight decrease, while deaths are slightly up (note that the grey bars in the hospitalization chart are incomplete data).
Testing activity in Washington state remains at a relatively high level, but has fallen off slightly over the past two weeks due to a combination of short supplies and lab backups. The rate of positive test results continues to exceed the DOH goal of 2%.
Varying degrees of success in achieving the targets for the various categories of reopening under the Governor’s Safe Start program are resulting in a mish-mash of standards in various counties across the state, with Chelan, Douglas, Yakima, Benton and Franklin counties still in modified Phase 1. In our area of the state, Island County alone has qualified for Phase 3 reopening.
The latest numbers show demographic patterns continuing unchanged, with most infections reported among younger people, and most hospitalizations and deaths in older age groups.
The Snohomish County situation:
The county numbers overview shows total confirmed cases approaching at 5,730 and deaths breaking the 200 mark (last week’s figures were 5,465 and 193 respectively)
As with Washington state (see above) the county daily new case count shows an encouraging decline over the past four weeks.
Viewed over time, the critical county measures (total cases, recovered cases, and active cases) show a steady increase with the exception of deaths, which have remained relatively stable. Recoveries showed an uptick since last report (note that these numbers are through Aug. 8).
Cumulative case counts for the county through Aug. 8 come from the weekly report from the Snohomish Health District and do not include more recent and as yet unverified data.
Reflecting this trend, the case rate (cases per 100K population, two-week rolling average) is also showing a slight decline, although still significantly exceeding the DOH goal of 25.
Hospitalizations and deaths at the county level continue show little change from last week, with death rates heavily skewed to older demographics (see tables below).
Testing activity in Snohomish County reflects that of the state overall.
The local situation in our home cities as of Aug. 8:
Note: These data are taken from the COVID-19 Weekly Update report from the Snohomish Health District, which summarizes verified data as of the end of the previous week, in this case Aug. 8.
Critical metrics (total cases, recovered cases, deaths, and active cases) for our home cities are shown in the chart below. Note that death and active case figures are not available for Mountlake Terrace for 6/6, 6/13 and 6/20.
The local numbers summary:
Some more recent, but as yet unverified, current data are available on the Health District’s COVID Case Count page here.
The data, tables and charts in this report are taken from the following:
- The Snohomish Health District COVID Count web page
- The Snohomish Health District weekly COVID report, August 17 update
- The Washington State Department of Health COVID Dashboard
- The Washington State COVID Risk Assessment Dashboard
- The Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center
- The World Health Organization Coronavirus Resource Center <
- World-o-meters coronavirus update
— By Larry Vogel
By every definition of the word pandemic, this doesn’t even come close. So why does the media keep calling it one? Why are people in denial? Why is everyone gripped by fear?
Larry, thanks once again for the data. Especially like seeing actual numbers instead of just percentages when possible. Any chance of getting actual hospitalization numbers instead of a percentage for state and county?
How much is the general down trend in positives for the state a function of the less testing we have been doing the last week or so?
Since it is such a hot button topic at the moment is anyone putting out data for the state/county on the number of teachers that have tested positive, been hospitalized, died?
Two interesting numbers I’ve seen concerning national numbers…
average age of death for Americans in 2019 was 78, average age of Covid death is 78.
Total population died in 2019 2.8 million, estimated total died (using numbers from August 12th) in 2020 will be 2,716,754.
…we have been trending up on this number for decades. With all the deaths of Covid and extra deaths do to the effects of the shutdown the country is somehow on schedule to see a decline in total deaths. Seen very little (none from mainstream sources) media coverage of this, probably have to wait until after November for them to choose to let the public know.
Thanks for your comment, Anthony. Some actual hospitalization numbers for the county are available on the weekly report from the Snohomish Health District. I draw on that report for some of the numbers in the weekly summary, but there’s lots more in there. There’s an embedded link to it in the bullet items at the end of this report, but here it is again: https://www.snohd.org/DocumentCenter/View/4537/Weekly_rpt_882020 Take a look…great info there that goes beyond what we present here.
So all of these highly educated doctors, nurses, the CDC, the WHO, Gov. Inslee, Dr. Fauci, and heaven knows who else are all in on this great conspiracy and hoax of a pandemic to unseat Trump in Nov? It’s all been made up and blown out of all proportion for political reasons on the Left. That’s what some people writing here want us to believe. I wonder how many people who have lost a loved one or a good friend to this virus, think it’s all a big hoax and blown way out of proportion? People like Tom Hanks, who have actually had it, certainly don’t describe it as a “walk in the park.”
Back in April when it was thought the yearly total deaths would increase and would prove many uncounted Covid deaths I remember reading a number of excess death articles. If the end of year number looked to be going up from the expected 2.8 mil to 3.5 mil do you think that reporting trend would have continued? Its only now when it might go down to 2.7 mil that the articles have dried up, why isn’t the media telling us about this better than expected trend?
The same highly educated people that are telling us that 100’s of schools can’t be open to teach fulltime because it is unsafe are saying that a daycare worker in the same room at the same schools with the same kids is safe, why?
Teachers can sue thier employer, the school district. Parents can sue the school district because it was not safe. A day care worker or a parent using the day care center can sue the care giver but it may be much harder to sue the district, they only opened the door.
What is ‘safe’??
If the school district is claiming it is unsafe then how can they legally allow someone else to use their unsafe facility without being liable? Can the city of Seattle allow private company vehicles to cross the unsafe West Seattle Bridge without liability?
The school district can rent or allow people to use its facilities for a number of different purposes. The basket ball league of the volley ball league cannot hold district accountable for falling and breaking a leg. If the floor gave away then that is different.
The Bridge example is not the same.
Anthony, it is increasingly difficult to have a conversation with you as you seem to want simply to put others down who may have information that can add to the conversation.
When I was in elementary school my report card was not always great but I did get pretty good comments on “plays well with others” If it is your goal to dominate, overwhelm and put average people like me down, then you get a good score. I view the wonderful forum to be one of sharing and not just slamming others.
Discussing a topic with you sometimes is simply exhausting.
If it is unsafe for both a teacher and a daycare worker to use the class room for the same activity I might disagree but understand the reasoning.
To say it is unsafe for a teacher to interact with kids in room 101 at Chase Lake Elementary and at the same time safe for a YMCA daycare worker to interact with the same kids in room 101 at Chase Lake Elementary makes no sense. How are we in disagreement about this?
“The school district can rent or allow people to use its facilities for a number of different purposes. The basket ball league of the volley ball league cannot hold district accountable for falling and breaking a leg. If the floor gave away then that is different.”
Can the district rent out a court they have declared is unsafe to play on without liability? The coach being a school teacher or an adult from Boys and Girls club does not change that equation at all. The same as the adult in the room being a teacher or a daycare worker does not change a classroom the district calls unsafe into safe.
You win, good night.
Brilliant analysis AA! Never give up.
Hi Grace, before the SD made this decision should they also look at the potential legal issues that could be created with teachers, staff, or parents? I would hope what among their considerations would have been the potential impacts to voters. As a voter I would want to manage the risk of law suits.
Darrol,
The parents or anyone who contracts the virus would have to show that they contracted it not only from the school (very hard to do) but that the school was negligent in some way. They may still sue, but it would be extremely difficult to prevail and lawyers on contingency are reluctant to spend their money on issues they likely won’t win. Hope that helps you rest a little easier. Not having the schools open causes a whole host of problems, not the least of which is kids who are hungry, parents who can’t go to work, and our school employees put in the middle of the “grand experiment”. Too bad our Council seem more interested in dealing with their personal conduct rather than some of the real hard issues most of their constituency is dealing with. (Rolling eyes here:) I always enjoy your analysis of issues, and the clear way you have with defining the issues in a fair manner, without creating noise. Gonna run for Council anytime soon?
Thanks DT for a bit more of the legal stuff. You always have helped add to the discussion with useful information. There are 3 council member seats up for election Nov, 2021. For the last election we had several folks who could do a good independent job for all of Edmonds. Let’s see what happens. Just in case, probably so ask Joan B, the type of paint she used.
Since our schools are the great baby sitting agency for the dual income economy we have created in America the push is on to open them up whether the virus is spread as a result or not. The SD plan to allow some day care is an attempt to account for some of this function that the schools normally provide for relatively low income families with two wage earners necessary to have any sort of decent life style. These folks depend on the schools or highly subsidized daycare for their economic survival. Trump and his supporters want the schools open so parents can get back to their low income jobs and re-ignite the so called booming economy we had before the virus. The welfare of the children or public health has little to nothing to do with it all.
Your comment is mean spirited, as usual, with untrue statements and demeaning intent. This is an Elitist attitude that is untouched by facts or compassion. Why do you always go low?
Theresa, my sentiments expressed perfectly. Some have to always have “the last word”, that explains why they comment multiple times.
Clint, it to the recient events for us all to learn the role schools are playing beyond basic education. What should motivate us all is to find ways to get some of this done in the most cost effective way possible. Our tax dollars are in short supply and the schools have a number of unfunded mandates.
My statements are my opinion and not meant to be mean spirited or demeaning. I think our schools do a tremendous job under almost impossible circumstances even when times are supposedly good . If what I said is totally untrue, what would your reasoning be for opening schools where hundreds of children and teachers will become infected and suffer what is generally considered a nasty virus at best and deadly at worst. It’s only Trump and his minions like you who think it is a great idea to open our schools during a rampant pandemic. Under our economic system, almost no one can afford to raise a family without both parents working and guess who generally takes care of their kids when they are at work. What did I say that makes me have an Elitist attitude? For that matter, what is your definition of an Elitist? My guess would be you think an Elitist is anyone who doesn’t agree with you. Of course your leader likes to call people nasty nick names, so why wouldn’t you think it’s cool too?
Clint, “I knew an elitist, and Clint, you are no elitist” VP debate with Dan Q and referring to JFK. Happy birthday coming up.
But I have co-custody of a half breed chihuahua dog. I think that makes me a certified elitist for sure. He thinks he’s elite anyway. Thanks for the immoral support Mr.H.
Clinton your statement only works if it is a question of kids and teachers getting sick at school or keeping them closed and kids and teachers not getting sick. The problem is that kids and teachers go other places and get sick there, that is the part you seem to always ignore.
Is it safer to have kids spending a large portion of their day at school social distancing and getting daily wellness checks or somewhere else not social distancing and without the wellness checks?
Thank you Anthony, you explained this perfectly. If people never had/raised children they don’t have a clue as to what this shut down is doing to children, their parents and entire families, and apparently they don’t want to know. I’ll stick with the younger families like yourself and their opinions, you represent the future, and you are not an “outsider”, btw! Always value the time you take to go into detail. Keep up the good conversation!
You can get the virus anywhere there is another person who has it. I get that.
The question is where are you “most” likely to get the virus. The evidence suggests you are most likely to get it where there are lots of people interacting in close quarters. That would be places like bars, restaurants, political rallies, sporting events and schools. Is it smart to participate in these activities or, perhaps worse yet, try to force people to participate in any of these activities?
I’m open minded. Please feel free to tell me why you think the answer is yes. Remember, you are telling me why it is right to tell teachers they have to teach and children they have to go where there is a good possibility that they will get rather sick with a disease which we don’t fully understand nor are we able to cure or prevent yet. I think people have the right to do what they think is prudent, even the person commenting here who is trying to get the virus so he won’t be sick this winter when the flu is rampant. Just don’t try to force me to do this. Personal choice rules here, I would think.
The trouble is the the actual evidence to this point shows you are not that likely to get it at schools. That is why so many countries have been able to open their schools without increases in cases to the general public.
Almost all the school outbreak cases have been false reporting (Liberty College) or traced back to people getting it outside the school (ND, France, Australia, etc) and being found in the school. Not people spreading it in the school. With the schools closed they would have still gotten sick just most would not have known about it and spread it to others.
It is better to find the people that are sick so they can be warned to issolate instead of letting sick people unknowingly continue to go to group activities in ignorance and spread the virus.
A telling stat with the CDC, 107 kids (under 20) have died of Covid this year with none being linked to attending school (remember schools were open while the outbreak was happening) but teen suicides are up since the shutdown compared to last year. Their estimated 5-14 year suicide deaths for this year is 602, we are on pace to top 1,000. It is even worse when you look at the 15-24 age group. More kids are dying from the effects of not going to school than from Covid and we are saying lets do it again.
Even in a scenario where more kids were to become Covid positive by attending school than they are outside the schools as long as less kids are dying we are saving lives. That is a good thing, right?