COVID Weekly Report for Nov. 2: ‘Third wave’ picks up speed as virus numbers surge

Posted: November 2, 2020 2062

Each week we scour the internet to collect the latest information on the COVID battle from global to local levels.  Our aim is to provide you – our readers – with a one-stop-shop to gain a comprehensive overview of progress in fighting the pandemic at all levels.

The worldwide coronavirus pandemic continued to build this week, as the “third wave” of viral activity continues its march across the globe. The U.S. is edging ever closer to 100,000 new daily cases, posting a record one-day gain of 99,321 new COVID-19 cases on Friday — the highest single day number of cases recorded for any country – while adding 1,030 deaths on the same day.

Experts are expressing increasing concern of a devastating increase as the seasons change, driven by colder weather forcing a pandemic-weary public indoors and social distancing restrictions become harder to maintain. In addition, cases of double infection are beginning to emerge, where patients are coming down with both coronavirus and seasonal flu.

To help you, our readers, navigate this sea of information and sort this out for yourselves, here are the latest numbers, charts and statistics from the world to our own backyards.

The World and National Situation: 

This week’s global count from Johns Hopkins shows a sobering worldwide wave of new cases.  More than 3.4 million cases were added over the past seven days, up from 3 million last week and 2.5 million the week before (see our earlier reports for Oct. 26 and Oct. 19 comparison). The United States continues to lead the world in sheer numbers of cases, now at a staggering 9.2 million, up from 8.6 million in last week’s report. This week, the U.K. joined the “one million club,” bring to nine the number of nations surpassing that grim milestone. Worldwide deaths stand at more than 1.2 million, with the U.S. (now at more than 230,000 deaths) still comprising almost 20% of the global total.

The most recent tabular display of the top 10 nations from the World Health Organization shows similar numbers, the discrepancies due to the updates being taken in different time zones (WHO is based in Europe, and due to time differences the numbers are approximately 10 hours earlier than Johns Hopkins).

While the U.S. leads the world in overall case numbers, when adjusted to reflect cases per one million population, the U.S. drops this week to 15th place. Note that many of these nations comprise much smaller samples (for example, Vatican City with 27 cases), so while statistically these countries show a higher per-capita rate, the small sample size makes comparisons with U.S. dubious at best. See the complete interactive table where you can rank countries by any of the various metrics here.

The sharp daily case increases in Europe and the Americas hit new levels this week and are reflected in the World Health Organizations’ regional comparison below.

The U.S. remains in fifth place this week in COVID deaths per 100,000 population, increasing to 70.6 COVID deaths per 100K compared to 68.64 last week. (Mortality chart from Johns Hopkins University).

The Washington state situation:

The most recent (Oct. 31) state overview from the Washington Department of Health (DOH) shows confirmed cases at 108,315 with 2,366 deaths, up from 102,913 last week and 2,296 respectively a week ago. Testing activity shows 109,000 new tests administered.

The daily new case count for Washington state continues its “third wave” climb (the first two waves occurring in April and July respectively). The most recent count shows 814 new cases on Nov. 1, moving closer to the all-time July 18 high of 959 (see the interactive chart for Washington State on the Johns Hopkins website here).

This growth in cases is further reflected in the Oct. 29 case rate of 112.4 (cases per 100K population, two-week rolling average) up 7.4 percentage points from the previous week’s figure of 105.0 (95.6 the week before), further positioning Washington state as part of the larger worldwide surge and putting the state goal of 25 increasingly out of reach.

Trends in Washington state’s daily hospitalization and death counts continue to reflect the general rise in cases as these newly infected individuals advance through the course of the disease. Death numbers, although also on the rise, have yet to catch up with hospitalizations. The grey bars on the hospitalization chart are based on incomplete data, and are expected to rise even further as these figures become finalized (note that the hospitalization chart from DOH reflects Oct. 31 data, while the mortality chart from Johns Hopkins includes data through Oct. 30).

As illustrated by the two charts below, while the overall number of tests in Washington state are down slightly this week (224.7 per 100K compared to 230.5 the week before), the positivity rate has increased to 3.7% from the previous two weeks, which were steady at 3.4%.

Despite the rising numbers, this week saw no movement in reopening phases in the various counties across Washington state. Note that the numbers to the left of the map summarize the latest numbers of critical metrics, some of which are reported in more detail above.

State demographic patterns continue unchanged, with the Oct. 31 report following the familiar pattern of most infections among younger people, and most hospitalizations and deaths in older populations. Note that while those more than 80 years old comprise a mere 4% of cases, this groups account for more than half the COVID-related deaths.

 

The Snohomish County situation:

The county numbers overview as of Oct. 31 shows total confirmed cases hitting a new high of 9,024 (up from 8,494 last week) and 231 total deaths, three more than last week. Testing activity is up with total tests now standing at 191,830, up from 183,205 the week before.

The Oct. 31 Snohomish County daily new case count continues to reflect a trend that is building into the “third wave” of COVID infections. The individual blue bars register an all-time high of 104 on Oct. 12, surpassing the previous record of 100 set on March 16. Again, the grey bars indicate incomplete data, which is expected to increase as it is finalized.

Trends in critical county measures over time (total cases, recovered cases, and active cases) are shown below (these numbers are through Nov. 2). Note particularly the steeper increases in total cases (now exceeding 10,000) and active cases (hitting a new high of 2,192), reflecting the wider global and national trends of a resurging pandemic.

The two-week rolling average case rate chart from the Snohomish Health District shows a slight decline this week from the steep climb begun in mid-September, growing to 125.8 on Oct 31, surpassing the July second-wave peak and falling just short of the all-time high of 129.1 recorded during the first COVID surge in April.

The latest numbers (current as of 10/24) on deaths at the county level are reported in the charts and tables below. (Compare these with the information posted above.)

The testing activity table and chart from the Snohomish Health District (SHD) below reflect and compare overall counts with numbers of positive results through Oct. 24. Note that the overall number of positives continues to increase. The positivity rate is reported differently in the table and the chart (5.6% and 5.9% respectively), a discrepancy that will likely be resolved in the next SHD report.

The local situation in our home cities: 

Note: With the exception of death numbers, these data are taken from the most recent updates from the Snohomish County Health District Snapshots and Reports web page. As data are verified, occasional true-ups are made in the interest of accuracy and these may result in changes to previously posted numbers. Verified death numbers lag by a week, and are taken from the Nov. 2  COVID-19 Weekly Update report from the Snohomish Health District. Because these are coming from two different sources, where necessary figures have been interpolated for clarity.

Critical metrics (total cases, recovered cases, deaths, and active cases) for our home cities are shown in the charts below. These clearly show that the fall surge is reflected in our communities, particularly in the rise in overall and active cases.

The local numbers summary, data as of 11/2:

The data, tables and charts in Monday’s report come from the following sources:

— By Larry Vogel

  1. If wearing masks is the key does this mean the whole world has stopped wearing masks to create this global third wave?

    Keeping it local…

    3.2% of Washington hospital beds being used by Covid patients with 37.4% of beds sitting empty (last year today only 18% of beds were empty).

    Snohomish County is on pace for 250 Covid deaths out of 5,000 total deaths this year.

  2. I debated masks with a geneticists from Seattle last week. He asked me why I wasn’t wearing one and I said, “Because I am trying to get CV-19 early so that I am immune.” I pointed out that the increase in case counts is a good thing. He said I should wait and get immunity from the vaccine because some studies show that herd immunity might only last 4 months. I asked, “How long does immunity from the vaccine last?” I think I won this very short debate.

  3. If you want some proof that masks work, just take a look at Hong Kong. The reason I’m picking Hong Kong is because my son and daughter-in-law (she’s a native of HK) just returned from one month there. When they arrived there they had to spend 2 weeks quarantined. When they arrived back here no quarantine is required, because the incidence of Covid in HK is so relatively low. The populations of HK and Washington state are about equal. The median age in HK is 43.2; the median age for Wa state is 37.6. A few days ago the number of Covid deaths in HK was 105; the number for Wa state was 2,468. In Asian countries when ill they’ve worn masks for decades; too many people here still are not wearing a mask. My son said that when they were walking around in HK they saw only non-Asians not wearing masks.

    1. I should have also stated that the population is much more dense in HK. – only 103 sq miles compared to Wa state’s 17,552 sq miles.

    2. If masks are the answer what is the percentage that makes HK’s numbers work? As you said there are people in HK not wearing masks, so its not universal, and all these countries that are seeing their numbers go up and down and up and down are wearing masks, at some presumably lower percent.

      What if it turns out the numbers have more to do with HK having a greater base immunity to Covid because of past outbreaks? That they have a far larger percentage of untested asymptomatics but since they have higher general immunity are not showing up as hospitalizations and/or deaths.

      How exactly does HK count a Covid death, if its only a person that died solely of Covid and in a hospital if the US counted the same way our numbers would suddenly drop to under 10,000. Would you consider that an accurate reflection of the situation that policy could be based upon?

    1. We’ve been living with viruses for millions of years, and you’d think that if masks kept us all alive, then we would have evolved a mask. We don’t have skin flaps over our faces. Ron is mentioning Hong Kong as a model, but they had spikes in cases in March and July. Apparently they are having a super bacteria problem right now, flesh-eating disease that doesn’t respond to anti-biotics. Exactly as said in Jurassic Park; Life Finds a Way.

      The issue is that we need to keep our immune systems up, or wearing masks will be the new norm. “Leaky” Vaccines are the newest healthcare dilemma, exactly like antibiotic resistant bacteria. We flattened the curve, and unless the virus is eradicated, then we are inevitably going to live with it and breathe it in. I somehow imagine masks causing stronger viruses in the same way leaky vaccines do.
      https://www.healthline.com/health-news/leaky-vaccines-can-produce-stronger-versions-of-viruses-072715

      Here’s the only scientific study (that followed the rules of science) on the use of masks to prevent CV.
      https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25903751/

      1. The study you reference (supported by 3M through an ARC grant) is from 2011 and looks at the difference in infection rates of hospital workers in Vietnam wearing an N95 mask or a cloth mask. Of course an N95 mask is superior, exactly why we were all asked to not buy all the N95 masks in March so they would be available for healthcare workers and first repsonders. The researchers who designed the study admit that they didn’t keep track of whether or not the members of the control group wore N95 masks, cloth masks, or no mask. They also admit they didn’t keep track of hand washing.

        “A limitation of this study is that we did not measure compliance with hand hygiene, and the results reflect self-reported compliance, which may be subject to recall or other types of bias. Another limitation of this study is the lack of a no-mask control group and the high use of masks in the controls, which makes interpretation of the results more difficult. In addition, the quality of paper and cloth masks varies widely around the world, so the results may not be generalisable to all settings.”

        “Cloth masks are used in resource-poor settings because of the reduced cost of a reusable option. Various types of cloth masks (made of cotton, gauze and other fibres) have been tested in vitro in the past and show lower filtration capacity compared with disposable masks. The protection afforded by gauze masks increases with the fineness of the cloth and the number of layers, indicating potential to develop a more effective cloth mask, for example, with finer weave, more layers and a better fit.”

        1. Annon, yeah, agreed. Even the one [best] study conducted is far from perfect. I’m seeing mask studies these days of a single reported hairdresser who was CV positive and didn’t spread to her clients. <- taht's a sample size of one. We're seeing video's by youtubers used as proof. In my house, people share masks. I see people walking around touching their masks a lot, and it seems as though most people have an absolutely filthy mask.

          Why doesn't someone actually do a study on mask effectiveness? CDC says 70% of people who get CV-19 were those wearing masks and socially distanced.
          https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6936a5-H.pdf

          I bet masks are about 10% effective. I'm not a moron who doesn't think they work at all. I simply believe whatever protection masks offer only prolong when or the likelihood of getting CV-19 by months.

      1. As a scientist and an expert on infectious disease, I would expect Dr. Fauci knew that masks would reduce the spread of viruses when he made this statement in March. It was also the CDC recommendation at the time. So why would he make such a recommendation? My guess is that he was more concerned about the shortage of protection supplies and didn’t want a panic run to make it worse. They (CDC et al.) reversed themselves in April.

  8. Matt, the CDC study you referenced above is, again, a flawed study. To say the study shows that 70% of people who contract covid were wearing masks and social distancing is, at best, misleading. Many of the people who were infected were exposed to the virus within their own households, and others dined out where the use of masks is interrupted by the need to remove them to eat. The conclusion of the study was, in the words of the researchers:

    “Exposures and activities where mask use and social distancing are difficult to maintain, including going to locations that offer on-site eating and drinking, might be important risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Implementing safe practices to reduce exposures to SARS-CoV-2 during on-site eating and drinking should be considered to protect customers, employees, and communities and slow the spread of COVID-19.”

    1. Annon, you’re proving my point both about how soft the science is, and about the impracticality of the current scheme. People are catching it indoors, often with their families, or in buildings with central air. We’d have to wear masks in our sleep for this to be anywhere as a effective as people champion it.

      1. Not sure how you see that I’m proving your point, or that it proves how “soft” the science is. In the study you sited people are indeed catching it indoors, likely because they remove their masks. Why spend the money on yet another study when the numbers show that wearing a mask, social distancing and good hygiene make a significant difference (just look at super spreader events vs those of us who abide by the requests to wear masks+).

        The way you wrote your question and following statement above, “Why doesn’t someone actually do a study on mask effectiveness? CDC says 70% of people who get CV-19 were those wearing masks and socially distanced.” suggests the CDC says masks aren’t that effective, which isn’t what the study you sited says at all. It suggests that folks who remove their masks to eat at a restaurant (or work out, or go to a coffee shop) very well may be at higher risk to contract the virus. The researchers want safer practices implemented in those situations to decrease the risk to all.

        Regardless of how much folks don’t want it to be true, this virus is more deadly than the flu (and we’re becoming aware of other life altering after effects of the virus that significantly decrease ones quality of life, should the person survive) so doing a study with an unmasked control group that would need to put people at risk isn’t ethical. Please, everyone, just do your part and stop trying to make this political.

        1. You’re asking me why we should spend the money on the science when the numbers show that masks work? I can’t properly respond to that.

  9. We can’t ethically do the study you want; wish we could. Don’t know what more to tell you, Matt. Maybe this will be of some help:

    A quote from George Rutherford, MD, an epidemiologist: But the strongest evidence in favor of masks come from studies of real-world scenarios. “The most important thing are the epidemiologic data,” said Rutherford. Because it would be unethical to assign people to not wear a mask during a pandemic, the epidemiological evidence has come from so-called “experiments of nature.”

    Infectious disease expert Chin-Hong, MD: Why did the CDC change its guidance on wearing masks?

    The original CDC guidance partly was based on what was thought to be low disease prevalence earlier in the pandemic, said Chin-Hong.

    “So, of course, you’re preaching that the juice isn’t really worth the squeeze to have the whole population wear masks in the beginning – but that was really a reflection of not having enough testing, anyway,” he said. “We were getting a false sense of security.”

    Rutherford (referenced above) was more blunt. The legitimate concern that the limited supply of surgical masks and N95 respirators should be saved for health care workers should not have prevented more nuanced messaging about the benefits of masking. “We should have told people to wear cloth masks right off the bat,” he said.

    A study: https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00818

    I’d love to go maskless, but doing so, in my opinion, would be foolish, not to mention selfish.

    1. From another study:

      In countries with cultural norms or government policies supporting public mask-wearing, per-capita coronavirus mortality increased on average by just 15.8% each week, as compared with 62.1%each week in remaining countries. Conclusions. Societal norms and government policiessupporting the wearing of masks by the public, as well as international travel controls,areindependently associated with lower per-capitamortality from COVID-19.

      https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342198360_Association_of_country-wide_coronavirus_mortality_with_demographics_testing_lockdowns_and_public_wearing_of_masks_Update_June_15_2020

    2. If there are no standards in testing or tabulation, then there is no meaningful science because establishing controls is a scientific tenant. Anecdotally, plenty of places that wear masks have had spikes. Every time the news cycle touts some place that has CV-19 under control, there is a spike in that location, and our goldfish memory kicks in. Also, I don’t understand why CV-19 case rates are a bad thing. If we got inoculated and took an antibody test, it would probably look the same as if we got infected and took an antibody test. Assuming masks work (which I don’t assume that), basically me walking around without a mask is effectively me walking around inoculating people. That’s not selfish, it’s generous. I’d argue that hogging all the hospital beds for CV-19 instead of taking care of people’s other healthcare needs (such as bypass surgeries) is selfish and maybe even more deadly.

      1. Matt, you clearly have an agenda. It reminds me of a woman in a store I was in the other day. She didn’t have a mask so was given one by a clerk. She proceeded to yell that masks didn’t do any good and she shouldn’t have to wear one. Of course everyone looked at her, and my first thought was that she merely wanted an audience to witness her frustration with this whole covid situation. Kinda sad really.

        I already knew from the get go that you wouldn’t admit to gaining any information from my posts, but I trust that at least some who might have blindly taken your comments as complete now sees that those comments are not complete. At least you understand that walking around without a mask puts others at risk – a good example of selfishness, in my opinion. Please, don’t do me, or anyone else any “favors” by inoculation. Covid patients hogging all the beds, as in they don’t really need to be there? Right…..

        1. I have an agenda. I’m pro saving lives and letting lives live. My grandfather nearly died, not from CV-19 – but from having his hip replacement surgery delayed for so long.

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