Under the Weather: Mostly dry this weekend, but rain set to return next week

After being hit with several storms over the past couple weeks, we are finally expecting a break from the crazy weather. November tends to be the wettest month of the year, and it definitely seems like we’re living up to that expectation. Interestingly enough, through the first 18 days of the month, we are actually slightly below normal in terms of precipitation at Paine Field. You can see this in the graph below.

Over the next few days, we’re not expecting to add much to that monthly total. In fact, with the exception of some possible scattered showers on Friday, we should remain mostly dry through Saturday. Take a look at the GFS Ensemble for 24-hour precipitation at Paine Field, shown below.

Most ensemble members are showing a brief dry stretch through late Sunday morning. This will be a great opportunity to get some outdoor tasks done, such as cleaning up fallen leaves—especially from gutters and storm drains. It will also be a good time to get outside for a nice autumn walk. Those dry moments outdoors are hard to come by at this time of the year. Plus, any excuse to get out of the house, am I right?

The reason for this short dry period is an upper-level ridge setting up shop over the region. This is associated with sinking air, which inhibits cloud formation, and thus, wet weather.

By Sunday, this ridge shifts to the east, with a cold front following behind it. You can see this depicted from the UW WRF-GFS model.

This front is expected to arrive late morning on Sunday, but in our area, the rain isn’t expected to amount to much. Through the span of the weekend, we should see less than a quarter of an inch.

In terms of temperatures, we should stay close to normal for this time of year, with highs in the mid- to upper 40s and lows near 40.

Next week, wet weather looks to resume as if this brief break never happened — although, some models are suggesting that we could be mostly dry for Thanksgiving (I honestly can’t believe Thanksgiving is next week). This ought to be good news for those trying to hold outdoor holiday celebrations. There is still time for things to change, but at this point, it looks good.

I hope everyone has a fantastic weekend. Enjoy the dry weather

— By Kelsie Knowles

Kelsie Knowles is a meteorologist and recent University of Washington graduate who lives in north Lynnwood. After writing weather blogs as a KOMO News intern, she discovered a passion for writing about weather. You can learn more in her blog www.wxnoggin.com and you can also follow her on Twitter at @kels_wx3.

 

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