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While we welcome the news that Sound Transit’s light rail line (ST2) now reaches Lynnwood, we think people should know what they are actually getting for the $1,800 annual cost the average family is paying in Sound Transit’s forever taxes[1]. So, before we commit to adding another 62 miles of Sound Transit’s light rail (ST3), still in the planning stages, let’s look at the actual costs and benefits when it’s completed in 2048. According to our federally mandated planning agency, the Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) by 2050, even with full build out of light rail:
– Traffic congestion increases 54%[2]
– Only 3% of the region’s 24,000,000 trips a day by car, transit, ferry, walking, bike, will be on Sound Transit trains. [3]
– Greenhouse gas emissions will decrease only 6% below 1990 levels, well below the region’s goal of an 83% reduction. [4]
In 2016, the ST3 ballot measure was priced at $54 billion. Today it is at $148 billion and counting. For those non-math folks, a billion is a thousand millions.[5]
It’s time to hit the brakes on Sound Transit.
Finish the light rail projects under construction, but before any further planning of ST3, the Washington State Legislature needs to hold ST accountable. If you agree, please sign our petition to the Legislature and share the petition with others. The petition asks the Legislature to:
1. Pause planning on all ST3 projects.
2. Require all Sound Transit Board members be directly elected by district.
3. Conduct an objective cost-benefit analysis of all viable ST3 alternatives.
What would alternatives to ST3 look like?
– Use a fraction of the construction budget to modernize street infrastructure, traffic signals and bus features to make expanded RapidRide BRT service more frequent, faster, and reliable. This could cover many more neighborhoods than a single light rail line in a few years rather than decades.
– Get more people to existing transit stations and eliminate transit deserts by providing more vanpools, carpools, electric bikes and on-demand micro transit van services like Metro Flex.
– Electrify buses and micro-transit vans.
– Ask the Legislature to hold Washington State Department of Transportation accountable on its promise to keep the 310 miles of HOV lanes moving at 45 miles per hour at least 90% of the time.
– Start planning for autonomous vehicles to provide service where there isn’t enough demand to support bus service. The technology is already being tested in several cities.
– Increase security presence on routes that need it.
For more information and documentation, see Promises vs. Reality on our smartertransit.org website. And, to understand why these projects continue to get funded despite their cost and ridership numbers, see our “Contracts” report toward the bottom of our website under “Learn More.” It turns out the cost is the benefit, with real estate firms, developers and hundreds of companies making millions and billions of dollars.
Why haven’t you heard about these numbers until now? Between 2007 and 2015, leading up to the ST3 vote, Sound Transit spent over $40 million on public relations and marketing.
Some other facts you may want to know.
– We love trains, but in order for them to be cost effective, you need very high densities. New York City has 29,000 people per square mile. Seattle has about 9,000 people per square mile. Tacoma, Everett and our suburbs have about half that.
– Light rail is called “light” because of its capacity, not weight. They are actually very heavy because they have to withstand impacts with road vehicles. They are not “grade-separated” like the Amtrak trains or subways (heavy rail). As a result, they present a hazard to cars and pedestrians. Elevating or tunneling them to avoid interruptions to service becomes prohibitively expensive and environmentally destructive.
Along with signing the petition, please:
1. Contact your County and State Legislators. See the League of Women Voters if you don’t know who they are at https://www.lwvwa.org/who-represents-you.
2. Send a note to Gary Horcher, investigative reporter at KIRO and respectfully ask that KIRO start covering this major story. ghorcher@kirotv.com.
3. Forward this information to friends, family, neighbors, colleagues.
4. West Seattle is first on the list of ST3 projects now. Please see Rethink the Link for how you can help save homes, businesses and sensitive areas with a very viable alternative.
5. Join our coalition – See contact info on our smartertransit.org website.
— By John S. Niles & Maggie Fimia
Co-Chairs, smartertransit.org
Sources
1 https://ofm.wa.gov/sites/default/files/public/dataresearch/pop/special/rta.pdf;
https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/united-states/quick-facts/washington/average-household-size#map
2 PSRC’s 2050 Transportation plan, Appendix H, pg. 24
3 “Justification information:”
4 https://www.psrc.org/media/5942 pg. 7, (see 3rd and 4th bar)
5 https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/transportation/sound-transit-ceo-julie-timm-is-leaving-her-post/(Paragraph # 7)
Thank you for this information. I have , from the beginning understood this to be a “boondoggle” with costs that would soar far beyond what we were told ( lies ) that convinced people to vote for it. There was never a valid reason for light rail in this region and never will be. We must move to stop this and get rational and smart about traffic in the Seattle metroplex which you have laid out here. It is never too late to start stopping this hyper expensive debacle.
For more information see Charles Prestrud’s Post: The West Seattle Link Extension has gone off the Rails
Blog CHARLES PRESTRUD Oct 8, 2024
https://www.washingtonpolicy.org/publications/detail/the-west-seattle-link-extension-has-gone-off-the-rails
The West Seattle extension approved by voters in 2016 was to cost 2.3 billion. ST just announced that it will be closer to $7 billion. Ridership estimates are abysmal. His conclusion: “In 1996, 2008, and 2016 Sound Transit sold voters on the idea that building a light rail system was the solution to the region’s growing transportation needs. Now the FEIS for West Seattle extension project shows that the agency’s rigid adherence to light rail has become the obstacle to consideration of far more cost-effective alternatives. ”
The other ST3 projects: Federal Way to Tacoma, Lynnwood to Everett and Bellevue to Issaquah have the same very low additional ridership and much faster and less expensive alternatives we could implement. Please contact your elected officials and ask them to hold ST and PSRC accountable.
I’ve been trialing the bus to light rail to UW and love it. Takes a few min longer but I avoid the $10 a day parking, the mileage on my car, and the 1.5 hr a day getting frustrated in traffic jams, and also get about 20 min of exercise. Instead of wasted driving time I get to read the news, check my emails, and… help to make the traffic a little less worse for everyone else. Imagine how bad the traffic will be in 20 yr time without any light rail? Two hr to Seattle if you drive? Also, lots of big cities have amazing public transport.
Glad you are using the light rail. Of course it will “work” for a certain number of people. According to our federally mandated planning agency, as stated in our Post, by 2050, even with full build out of light rail (Sound Move, ST2, ST3), traffic will increase 54%.
Unfortunately, the taxes are mostly buried: ST’s share of your property tax is part of a larger property tax bill or escrow, ST’s sales taxes within a larger sales tax. Most people only see the result, a train ride, not the costs for it. This well-researched article doesn’t say get rid of existing light rail, it suggests that further light rail isn’t a cost-effective or time-efficient answer to serving the lower-density suburbs. Example: A BRT loop around Everett could be added within 2 years for minimal costs (buses, drivers, signage), as it would share part of its routing and stops with an existing BRT line, it’s been halfway there since 2019. Instead, ST is spending at least an estimated $1 billion taxpayer dollars and at least 5 years of extra construction time to put in light rail in this loop (vs. I-5)…at least another 17 years from now. And, there is no airport station at Paine Field. Also, why can’t these extensions have automated trains? Why does ST continue to run the incredibly expensive Sounder North? Why did 100,000+ population Renton get excluded from rail (answer: no representation on the ST board, whose members are mostly hand-picked politicians serving a city/county as their primary job)? Riding the 1 line between downtown and Sea-Tac is not amazing public transport, most airport trains are faster/more efficient.
The simple answer is money and greed. I worked for a Washington County in program management that mapped out future zoning and plans. Every land developer would love to have that map. Notice how the land was acquired along the transit station stops before the project even started (insider info for money or politics). Even Northgate. It makes me upset. I lived by there and as a Cub Scout sang Christmas songs in front of the Bon in the mall BEFORE there was even a roof on the mall. It was a Seattle landmark. Notice all the box people storage apartments being built on that land now. The design for the rail system and cars are over 20 years old. The system is already an antique. The answer is CORRUPTION!
Thank you Brian for the thoughtful comments.
Would people vote for ST again? Is Sound Transit doing a good job for citizens based on the money they collect? Are riders getting what they expected? Based on the amount ST is spending on these projects, how much affordable housing or new home tax breaks could that money provide? Is double-bus transit and arterial light rail lines off of major corridors an efficient and most effective use of tax payer dollars? What will transit look like this in 20 years? It is imperative to get a public opinion poll on these issues. Right now transit is still down Mon-Fri at 60% of Pre-Covid levels on most lines, and most of the increase of ridership is on the weekends: https://www.soundtransit.org/ride-with-us/system-performance-tracker/ridership
We need a POLL!
How are they defining boarding? This whole thing seems off. I don’t believe they are collecting fares. Much of the ridership are people that don’t pay fares and wouldn’t ride if they had to. In addition they have closed critical and convenient bus routes for many people to force them to take the bus even adding time to their commute.
In Island County just north of Snohomish County the auto tabs are about $85.00 for the whole year no matter how old, new or expensive your car is. I was born in Seattle and grew up there before the freeway. When they started the light rail 20 years ago I wondered, WHY didn’t they build a monorail system instead? It worked great during the Worlds Fair and carried people just fine, fast and fun. And much cheaper to build. Except for the most condensed areas of Seattle this light rail system is already toast. I feel sorry for the TAX people should not have to pay as most people don’t use that system anyway. Perspective? From 1931 to 1936 (3years) Hoover Dam was built. This transit system is almost 20 years in the works with no end in sight. The light rail system is already an antique. Can they be sued to get the tax money back?
I did not vote for it!!! Its my nightmare coming alive.
…Transit deserts? Lynnwood station has no parking left by 10 am. The trains are consistently full during rush hour. If anything, we needed larger trains, not “electrified vans and buses”. I for one am more than happy to pay for a way to avoid wasting hours of my life sitting in Seattle gridlock traffic, gas money, and paying for Seattle’s absurdly priced parking facilities. I do agree that the projects are overbudget, and way too slow in providing results, but after 4 years of using the link I find it a better return on investment than whatever billions we throw into our highways only to get nonstop gridlock traffic and road quality that genuinely reminds me of driving in developing countries.
I agree 100% One thing to remember is that the improvement of traffic is not the stated goal of Sound Transit.
Improvement of the north and southbound links to include Paine Field and further South along with more or larger rail cars would be a great start.