Climate Protection: How will we switch to electric cars and trucks?

Photo courtesy Pixabay

If you were around at the end of 1995, you were here when U.S. gas stations sold their last gallon of leaded gas.

From the 1920s to the 1970s, almost all cars were built to burn leaded gasoline. If you burned gasoline without the lead additive, your engine would knock and eventually break and have to be replaced.

The downside of leaded gas was that it added lead to car exhaust.  With lots of cars driving around cities, inner-city children breathed a lot of lead.  That lead lowered their average I.Q. by about 3 points and increased their chances of ADHD, depression, anxiety and neuroticism.  Three I.Q. points is not a super big deal.  On average, three I.Q. points is associated with about 40 points off your combined 1,600-point SAT scale.  If you were going to get an 800 combined score, with lead, you would get more like 760.  Similarly, people who grew up breathing leaded car exhaust are, on average, only a bit more likely to be depressed, have ADHD, or a neurotic personality disorder. But if you were someone who would have been close to troubled, the addition of lead might be what pushed you over.

Leaded gas was phased out in different years in different places, allowing for a measurement of the impact of leaded gas that is separate from other things going on. The current estimate is that leaded gas doubled the number of homicides and other crimes in the U.S. from 1970 to 1990. (Did you know we had a huge drop in violent crime after 1990?)

Children growing up on farms who helped out near tractors and trucks also breathed a lot of lead fumes. Anyone with memories of diesel exhaust from before 1996 got a face full of lead, along with the nitrogen oxides, aldehydes and sulfates that are still in diesel exhaust.  Same goes for kids who rode in diesel school buses.

In 1970, every car on the road burned leaded gasoline when the Environmental Protection Agency banned making any more cars or trucks that released the kind of pollutants cars had previously released. That led to the invention of the catalytic converter. Every 1975 model year vehicle had a catalytic converter and could not burn leaded gas. Catalytic converters have been in cars and trucks from then on. To serve the new cars, gas stations started providing unleaded gasoline next to their leaded gas pumps.

I grew up expecting that every gas station had both an unleaded and a leaded gas option.  In researching how we got away from leaded gas, I found that the federal government banned leaded gas altogether at the end of 1995. It’s been almost 30 years, and I never noticed that the leaded pumps were gone. I guess no one mentioned to me they were taking the leaded gas away. Certainly, I never cared, because by 1996, only hobbyists had cars that required leaded gasoline, and most hobbyists had had their engines rebuilt to burn unleaded gas.

What happened? Where did all the lead-gas cars go? In the 21 years between 1975 and 1996, the lead-gas cars wore out and were junked.

We now have almost 300 million gasoline cars and trucks in the United States. Those gasoline vehicles are releasing the carbon dioxide that is causing global warming. You might ask “How will we ever replace all those cars and trucks?” The answer is “the same way we replaced leaded-gas cars and trucks” We’ll stop building new gas vehicles and about 25 years later, only hobbyists will still have gasoline-powered cars.

So far, there is no federal law like the 1970s law banning the kinds of pollution you get from lead-gas cars. New Mexico has banned new gas cars after 2025. Washington state, Maine and Oregon have banned them after 2030.  California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Rhode Island and Vermont have banned new gas vehicles after 2035.

By the time we get to those deadlines, it might not matter much. Here in Washington state, 20% of new cars and trucks are electric, up 100% since 2021. If the current trends continue, most people won’t want new gas cars anyway by the time they are banned.

Nationally, we’re only up to 9% of new vehicle purchases being electric. The rest of the country might need those extra five years to 2035 to catch up to those of us in Washington state.

Why wait?

When you buy a new gas car, you are committing people to burning about 8,000 gallons of gasoline. Your new car will probably burn about one gallon of gasoline for every 30 miles it runs, and it will probably go about 250,000 miles. Not necessarily driven by you. If you sell your car after 50,000 miles, someone else will buy it as a used car. It may go through a series of used-car buyers, each paying less and less. Eventually, it will be exported to some place like Africa or South America, where talented mechanics who are paid very little will nurse it along to 250,000 or 300,000 miles, before they give up on it.

In contrast, you could buy or lease an electric car or truck. That prompts manufacturers to make another electric vehicle, avoiding those 8,000 gallons that would have been burned for a new gas car or truck. To have the biggest impact on gasoline burning, you could commit to leasing a new electric vehicle every three years. Each time you started a new lease, you would be launching another electric vehicle into the world to displace a gas car or truck.

— By Nick Maxwell

Nick Maxwell is a certified climate action planner at Climate Protection NW; teaches about climate protection at the Creative Retirement Institute; and serves on the Edmonds Planning Board.

 

  1. Although there is some correlation between lead depression, adhd, and the other things you listed those things are all currently on the rise including violent crime which is just a hypothesis not a fact, so for me how am I to give weight to your opinion when you make correlations to things claim those things are down when infact they are currently on the rise? Maybe the reasons for the current trends is our exposure to radiation from all these batteries in our environment cause you sure can’t blame the lead anymore.

      1. Actually if you look at the statistics the drop in violent crime corresponds more closely with the 94 crime bill than lead reduction

  2. Thanks Nick for this column explaining how the electrification transition will happen. I would say it also applies to gas appliances as well as electric cars. Those who would do nothing to fix our climate breakdown always make it sound like the transition will happen overnight, and therefore we can’t possibly create that much new electricity, when in reality it is a slow transition that occurs and can be planned for.

  3. I think it is important to understand that switching to an EV car or truck will not necessarily improve the environment. The switch to EV may lessen the need for oil but it also increases the need for rare earth minerals whose extraction from the Earth is causing as much environmental damage as oil drilling. Google “Damage caused by lithium, cobalt, copper mining” to see what is going on the parts of the world where this extracting is being done. EV cars and trucks still leave tire rubber on the roads (perhaps even more than ICE (Internal Combustion engine) vehicles, they still have fluids for steering, braking, and grease for joints that can leak off onto the asphalt. These fluids and rubber drain off into our water systems the came as ICE cars. And the excessive weight of the battery packs is increasing the damage to streets that constantly need repairing anyway. And we haven’t started to discuss the economic and political changes the shift to Electric Vehicles will make when the oil exporters start being replaced by the mining export centers. Buying an EV may give us warm feel good fuzzies, but that is not affecting the real problem of over consumption by wealthier nations at the detriment of less advanced nations.

    1. I agree that over-consumption is a problem that needs to be addressed to help the climate but the argument about EVs and mining being as destructive as oil and gas is a false one since mining does not also add very much to emissions. Fossil fuels are causing climate breakdown. Mining of anything including oil and gas causes harm, but there is much more fossil fuel mining/drilling going on than mining for rare earth minerals. Also there are new batteries being developed such as those using organic compounds or rock silicates among other ideas. This will reduce the mining in the future. And lastly, recycling of the rare metals will increase , lessening demand.

    2. That is a good issue to consider.

      It takes about 207 kg of minerals (graphite, nickel, lithium, etc.) to make an electric vehicle (https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/minerals-used-in-electric-cars-compared-to-conventional-cars). Most of those materials can be recycled when the car is scrapped. It takes 33 kg of minerals and over 20,000 kg of gasoline to build and run a gasoline car over its lifetime, and you can’t recycle the gasoline. Once you burn it, it’s gone. It’s hard on the environment to dig up the minerals for an electric vehicle. That’s why we should recycle the minerals. It’s about 100 times harder on the environment to pump up the oil for the gasoline car.

      There is this illusion that the gasoline appears without any environmental damage and the only harm is after it is burned and the carbon dioxide is released out the tailpipe. Nope. Ask anyone who lived with the oil spills from Deepwater Horizon, or the folks trying to protect the Apalachicola, or folks anticipating the 4,300 tons of gasoline just dropped into the Black Sea. The oil doesn’t come out of the ground or move from place to place without damaging the environment.

  4. That’s an interesting bit of history. I’d seen the statistics before about how much the murder rate has dropped since the 90’s, and wondered about the cause. Looking at the statista.com graph Arlene posted, the drop in violent crime is quite dramatic and makes brief spike in 2020 look like a blip. Your comparison over time and among different places makes a compelling argument that the removal of lead was a significant factor.

    One could push the leaded gas car / gasoline car analogy farther by talking about the reductions in children’s asthma attacks that come with switching to electric vehicles. The American Lung Association has urged the Environmental Protection Agency to speed up the transition to EVs to reduce children’s asthma and infant deaths. (https://www.lung.org/media/press-releases/boosting-health-for-children-transition-to-electr) Hopefully 30 years from now, the graph of childhood asthma rates will show a plunge as impressive as the recent decades’ drop in violent crime.

    1. Yes, Laura, asthma rates could come down with less fossil fuel exhaust and another big help would be to remove gas ranges and cooktops from kitchens which can release nitrogen oxides and benzene. The indoor air quality plummets with gas cooking especially if there is inadequate ventilation and this can increase childhood asthma rates. Switching to electric induction stoves is way more efficient and healthier for children.

  5. Global greenhouse gas emissions are still on the rise yet my state continues to punish low income people the most with their policies and then they turn around and give rich and middle class people incentives to help them as they continue to push the low income people closer to the brink. Facts. I really don’t know how you people sleep at night.

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